Holiday marketing trends 2025: How to win hearts this Christmas

This piece is based on an article written by Kurt Stuhllemmer for WARC

Kurt Stuhllemmer, Partner at Hall & Partners, shares six pivots marketers can make to win Christmas 2025 — by blending empathy, value, and emotional intelligence.

Christmas campaigns in the UK are the emotional Olympics of marketing when it comes to reaching the hearts and purses of consumers. Brands will already be limbering up to flex their narrative muscles, chasing tears, smiles and sales in what is known as the year’s ‘Golden Quarter’.

But for many consumers, the season of feasting may turn to one of fasting as the realities of dwindling funds and a more conscious approach to consumption collide.

This changes the rules of the game for marketers. It’s more than the familiar “belts are tightening” refrain, and it’s no longer a free-for-all of festive escapism. It’s a more complex evolution for consumers who are balancing emotional pull and economic reality. And like any Olympic bid, the work is 90% meticulous planning, 10% flawless execution.

The reality is that households are no longer simply cutting back; they’re making deliberate and high-stakes choices about where their money delivers the most value, both financially and emotionally. The Christmas campaigns have launched but the looming Autumn Budget, already forecasted to bring further tax rises that will hit middle-income earners the hardest, will be front of mind for many consumers. With interest rates and living costs still biting, brands face a consumer base that is optimistic in pockets, but cautious overall.

Christmas shoppers will be even more focused on purchases where the emotional and rational case are equally strong.

Marketers should not choose between emotion and economics, they must win on both.

From impulse to intentionality

In past years, festive spending often relied on spur-of-the-moment indulgence. Now, discretionary spend is curated with surgical precision. A family might splurge on a once-a-year dining experience, but cut back on non-essential décor. The “value with dignity” mindset is replacing pure extravagance.

This is not universal belt-tightening, it’s reallocation. PwC’s latest consumer confidence survey suggests that shoppers plan to spend at similar levels as last year, but redistribute budgets between categories. The challenge for marketers is simple: the prize is not “more spend”, it’s being bigger in the category they keep.

Marketing’s new role: Growth strategist

CMOs are increasingly morphing into chief growth officers (Unilever’s new Chief Growth and Marketing Officer for example). It’s no longer enough to just land an emotional punch with a killer Christmas ad; marketers must now choose and deliver narratives that deliver meaning and memory and drive broad-based sales growth.

We’re not suggesting that marketers tear up the emotional playbook. Instead it’s about refining it for a market where emotion without purchase justification feels indulgent and indulgence without meaning feels wasteful.

Festive marketing in 2025 must be tender and tactical, delivering emotional resonance tied to clear value. Brands that segment and sequence with different tones for different economic realities and show meaningful empathy will win. Blanket assumptions will not land well with consumers..

The most successful Christmas ads this year should make consumers feel something that makes them want to buy, without feeling foolish or lavish for doing so. Such indulgences should provide comfort, without the worry of cost.

Christmas will be a chance for brands to demonstrate emotional intelligence in its fullest sense: empathy for the cultural mood, fluency in the economics of the season, and agility in execution.

The brands that will win aren’t those with the biggest budgets or the loudest jingles, but those who understand that in 2025, the most precious gift you can give your customer is joy they can afford. That's where the gold medals will be won.

Have a contingency plan ready

With product shortages, supply chain issues and rising costs likely in this fast-moving turbulent economic time, marketers, or growth officers, must have contingency plans ready. Creative, offers, and media spend should be ready to flex if sentiment dips in early November. Brands that acknowledge the shift without sounding opportunistic will win both attention and affection.

Six pivots for a winning 2025 Christmas campaign

1. Emotion + purchase rationality. Emotional resonance remains vital, but without clear value cues it will be filtered out. Embedding price tiers, gifting bundles, or loyalty perks, directly into creative makes the leap from feel to buy seamless.

2. Segment economic storytelling. Sentiment is splintered across segments. A renter in their 20s, an older mortgage-free couple, and a squeezed middle-income family will process Christmas economics differently. Modular storytelling that flexes tone and the offer structure by audience segment, using the same brand thesis but different language, will be critical.

3. Calendar choreography (Q5 and aftercare). The season no longer starts with the John Lewis ad drop. Brands that win at Christmas start campaigns much earlier with curiosity-driving micro-drops. They peak with big-budget storytelling, and follow with post-purchase goodwill. These distinct campaigns beat from September through January, including a post-Christmas touchpoint that will help drive demand and build loyalty. It's not about just ‘starting early’ though. Marketers need to plan through the whole year to build consistent narratives that can be amplified in the key trading period. Whether that's being on consumers’ side with flexible payments, or leaning into deep emotional resonance through shared values. Whatever the plan… it’s a year round affair and not just for Christmas.

4. High-precision digital + CTV orchestration. Traditional TV’s festive grip is loosening as audiences fragment across streaming, gaming, and social platforms. Connected TV and retail media allow brands to match emotional cut-through with shoppable immediacy. Marketers should build assets for short formats alongside the hero films that are adapted for different screens, but tap into the same story. It must feel connected and easy for people to absorb.

5. Acknowledge economic reality in tone. Tone-deaf festive excess will land poorly in earned and social channels. Messaging that frames the brand as enabling meaningful rituals without overspending guilt will resonate far more than oblivious extravagance.

6. Inventory-led creative. A hero ad that drives demand for products you can’t fulfil is brand damage in disguise. Tight operational creative alignment is essential in a season where supply chains are thin. Let forecast and margin data decide which SKUs get the spotlight, especially in hero scenes.