Perspectives | September 22nd, 2023

How to accurately forecast in the uncertain world of Pharma

Matt Turner
Future pharma 2

Predicting the future is undoubtedly difficult. If it were not, twenty years or so ago we would have all probably bought vast amounts of stock in Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, and filled our digital boots with Bitcoin.

In the world of pharma, wide-of-the-mark predictions of the future can have significant financial implications. In these rapidly evolving, fiercely competitive times, with a seemingly ever-increasing number of variables at play, getting predictions right is increasingly difficult. Factors such as clinical trial outcomes, competitor product performance, and order of market entry can all often be relative unknowns at the time of demand forecasting. But internal stakeholders – finance teams, supply chain teams, marketing teams – all need health insight into future product uptake.

One thing we do know for sure is that the future does not yet exist – we’re helping to create it. There are many possible futures ahead and those futures are constantly in flux. This highlights the risks being taken when making forecasting projections based on a single expected outcome.

Our dynamic Multiple-Futures modelling approach helps replicate the real world and the uncertainties that can exist within it. Rather than rely on a single set of assumptions and a belief that all of these will come true, our approach generates thousands of simulations of the future and the probability of each becoming a reality. As knowledge of the market environment evolves, the model can be updated to factor in the implications of market changes and subsequent levels of demand.

Ultimately it allows you to see which futures are most likely to come true and to be able to build the uncertainties into your model for accurate forecasting.

Want to learn more about how Hall & Partners can help you use multiple-futures forecasting to predict the future of your pharma products?

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